Ok, now something that is a political judgment. We should get out of Afghanistan very soon. I’ve been leaning toward this for awhile, having been of the opinion in previous years that more attention to Afghanistan was good; now, though, it’s become a military version of the sunk cost fallacy. Obama’s upcoming decision should not be to add more troops, but to pull out, let Karzai sink or swim, and yet maintain a covert, unofficial presence to keep a check on the Taliban. Oddly enough, the U.S. has been the most successful in influencing what happens in that country when we haven’t been there officially; the initial plan that drove the Taliban out was done with a small group of “advisors” and air support.