I give Facebook five years

Actually, five may be generous.

The companies that survived the dotcom bust all provided quality services that were bankable and better than anyone else trying the same thing. eBay. Paypal. Google. Amazon. Newegg. Facebook has yet to deliver something unique that I can’t see being replaced by a competitor. All it has is a large market share – for the moment. Its inability to crack overseas markets, like Japan, is a fatal flaw that all these eager investors should be running from like the plague. The next cool thing is always coming for you. Apple understands that better than any tech company out there. If I was running FB, I’d be looking to cash out ASAP.

One thought on “I give Facebook five years”

  1. I think you are absolutely right, Mike. The entertaining part will be after the fall, when all of the investors have lost a mint, and are publicly scratching their heads and saying “How could we have been wrong about this?”

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