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Argumentation Politics Short Essays Writings

A Tale of Two Cases

SCOTUS has two big calls to make soon. One is whether Colorado can disqualify Trump via the 14th amendment, and the second is whether he is immune to prosecution in his election case.

As I never tire of saying, SCOTUS is a political committee more than an legal body. But the reasoning they will use is interesting to me from the perspective of a rhetorician.

My expectation is that they will follow the easiest path, which is to reverse the Colorado SC but deny Trump immunity, as it would open the smallest can of worms of the four possible futures. My reasoning follows.

State’s rights nonsense aside, I suspect the justices in any written decision won’t touch upon the actual dispute at hand (which is whether Trump attempted to subvert a presidential election) with a pole of any length. Instead, they will insist upon a federal procedure for invoking the 14th by an act of Congress, parallel to passing a bill without the President. And since Congress can’t even pass the simplest aid package at the moment (I am tempted to write “can’t even wipe its own backside with either house,” and so I will do both), the 14th is therefore shoved back into its post-Reconstruction role as a paper tiger. Ignoble, but at this point, inevitable.

The immunity case offers a way to salve the hack job on the Colorado decision; it’s a straightforward no. If the justices grant Trump immunity, they also grant Biden and Obama immunity, and no Trump appointee will be allowed to make that call. The immunity case, like all of Trump’s appeals, is just a delaying tactic.

Rhetorically, it’s the easiest path. SCOTUS comes off fairly neutral to most, even if it’s anything but.

Categories
Politics Short Essays Writings

The Most Important Map

I’d like to post a direct link to the most important and frightening map that I’ve seen in a long while.

It is a projected military map of Eastern Europe with a fully Russian-occupied Ukraine and a nest of divisions poised at the border of Poland.

Poland understands best of all what this map means. It’s why Finland and Sweden ran to NATO.

Note Belarus does not get the benefit of an ‘occupied’ color; the red reflects the reality.

The Baltics were already exposed, but on this map, they look ripe. Would NATO honor its obligations if a Russian division crossed the border of Estonia? Putin has called every bluff of the West so far.

The image is part of a larger article entitled “The High Price of Losing Ukraine” by ISW, a hawkish thinktank. Subtract their default American-power-leveraging attitude, though, and they are dead right about Ukraine.

In early 2022, there was a resigned expectation in the West that Ukraine would crumble quickly and this hypothetical map was a done deal, meaning that the U.S. would have to fortify Europe again at great cost.

But Ukraine didn’t crumble, and Russia is now in a proverbial bear trap.

There’s only two reasons for a Western politician not to vote to send Ukraine every artillery shell and piece of equipment we can. The first is that such a person is a Russian asset, wittingly or not; the second is rank stupidity. Neither is mutually exclusive.

Isolationism isn’t a sane option in a world where we already have two fingers plugged into two different dikes – Taiwan and South Korea.

Putin will take what he wants unless he is physically stopped from doing so.

Categories
Politics Short Essays Writings

It’s A Trap, or, Why Going to Congress Is a Bad Idea

Several high-profile university presidents went before Congress this week and got eviscerated for apparent latent antisemitism. These events, by themselves, are not notable or unpredictable, but I saw an interesting sidebar today in the Times on their attempts at prepping, via lawyers.

Top-level university administrators spend an inordinate amount of their work hours talking to legal counsel: some in-house, some private, but far more than the average faculty member would even dream of. At the level of Harvard, MIT, and Penn, well beyond my atmospheric altitude, that percentage may be even higher.

So, it might seem logical, natural, even advisable, for them to turn to such advisors before testifying before Congress.

But testifying before Congress isn’t, at least primarily, a legal proceeding. It’s always, first and foremost, political theater, designed and structured to score points – a place to display and exert power. While legal advice can certainly help a university official avoid saying something inadvertently illegal or inconsistent (and I wouldn’t say they shouldn’t have done such a briefing beforehand), employing only that thinking seems backward to me.

Why not start with a political, or dare I say it, rhetorical prep?

All large universities (at least the state ones) have multiple experts on public speaking, political science, and rhetoric amidst their faculty; indeed, there’s plenty of established analysis of just these kinds of rhetorical situations and the assorted pitfalls. Why not start there?

The best advice, of course, would have been not to go. There’s almost nothing to gain and a lot to lose.

University presidents are not typically, or practically, moral leaders; they are professional faces, fundraisers, occasionally visionaries, and always bureaucrats. Asking them to weigh in on an ongoing war in the Middle East, or, even just what their students are thinking and feeling, is frankly outside their skill-set. Combining that with the most poorly-understood-by-the-public concept in academia, the intersection between campus speech and academic freedom, well. I can’t think of a university president off the top of my head that would have the skill and gumption to turn the tables on a congressperson at their own game, on their own turf; their responsibilities, experience, training, and instincts all point to moderation and keeping everyone content. Those soft skills have real concrete value, but not in that arena.

Alas, the only current technique that works consistently in such situations is subversion and mockery. Flip the question, turn the tables, counterattack, refuse to play the game offered. Make them, or the game itself, the subject.

Restrictions on campus speech in the United States have not aged well. Censorship ultimately fuels the fire that it seeks to put out. The nigh-eternal patient tradition of allowing students and faculty to make fools of themselves has some hard-won wisdom to it.

However.

The complication now is that it’s become progressively harder for universities to guarantee everyone’s safety. Another shooting or bombing is always around the corner. Whose university will it be this week? This is the fear that drives behavior and policy, and its more cynical companion is the fear of lawsuits. Hence, the ever-present legal counsel.

Our social contract is frayed and worn due to its excessive use as a doormat in the last ten years. Safe physical spaces for real public deliberation, and even the notion and value of such spaces, dwindle. As always, it will take individuals with unwavering principles to democracy and free speech to preserve those spaces – and they will not need to consult with lawyers to do so.